Medilinks: June 11 2002

HIV/AIDS levelling off in South Africa?

By John Kiwanuka Ssemakula

According to a news release on Monday 11 June 2002 from the Department of Health (DOH) in the South African Government, data gathered from an annual survey seems to indicate the number of HIV infections may be leveling off and stabilizing.

The data from the 12^th National HIV and Syphilis Sero-Prevalence Survey of Women Attending Public Antenatal Clinics in South Africa showed that HIV prevalence rose from 24.5% in 2001 to 24.8% in 2002.

But the overall trend has been a continued slowing down in the increase of HIV infection since 1998. Prior to 1998 the HIV epidemic was showing an exponential increase with an estimated doubling time of 18-24 months. 16,730 women took part in the survey.

Source: DOH South Africa 2001

This has been welcomed with cautious optimism. Any news about decreasing rates of HIV has to be welcomed. But epidemiologists have sounded a note of warning because the reasons for the rate of slowing down are unclear.

The apparent leveling off could just be masking the true picture of the epidemic. It is possible stabilisation could be due to the mortality rate becoming equal to the rate of new infections which results in an unchanging overall population of HIV infected people. Despite the decrease, the underlying prevalence rate of 24.8 % still remains frighteningly high, and is only exceeded by Botswana. This is equivalent of 4.74 million people being infected with HIV/AIDS.

Source: DOH South Africa 2001

The picture is decidedly mixed. One very encouraging sign is the continued decline since 1998 in the prevalence in the under 20 year age group, possibly a sign that health and prevention education messages are getting through. In the previous annual survey 70% of teenagers stated they were concerned about the risk of contracting HIV/AIDS

Overall the 20-29 year age group has not changed significantly in 2001 from the previous year. However women in their 20’s constitute the largest group with HIV, having consistently high prevalence levels.

But there has been a sharp rise in the prevalence in the 35-39 year age group to 19.3% in 2001 up from 15.8 % in 2000 and a steady increase in the 30 –34 year age group. The reason for the rise amongst the older age groups is unclear.

Overall the survey report concludes that while the trend to a more mature epidemic continues, there can be no room for complacency. The magnitude of the epidemic is overwhelming and requires continued concerted efforts of all sectors of society to build on the gains made.

1.       Govt of South Africa, Department of Health (2001). 12^th National HIV And Syphilis Sero-Prevalence Survey Of Women Attending Public Antenatal Clinics In South Africa. June

2.       Govt of South Africa, Department of Health (2000). 11^th National HIV And Syphilis Sero-Prevalence Survey Of Women Attending Public Antenatal Clinics In South Africa.

 Links:

UNAIDS South Africa

Impact of HIV/AIDS on adult mortality in South Africa  

Medical Research Council Of South Africa